Iran has recorded about seven weeks without meaningful crude exports passing through the Strait of Hormuz, as a U.S. naval blockade prevents fresh cargoes from reaching China, its only remaining major oil customer.
Data from Kpler, Vortexa and TankerTrackers.com indicate that no Iranian crude shipment has successfully transited the strait to China since July 14. The disruption differs from earlier sanctions campaigns, during which Iranian oil continued to reach buyers despite restrictions.
Context: Strait of Hormuz shipping guide
Vortexa and Kpler estimated that Iran loaded between 220,000 and 255,000 barrels per day of crude oil and condensate in August. That compared with around 740,000 bpd in July and approximately 2 million bpd in March.
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Operational context
Vortexa analyst Claire Jungman said Iranian outbound flows had not remained near zero for such a sustained period even during the maximum-pressure sanctions of 2019 and 2020, when some crude passed through Hormuz every month.
Iran can continue selling oil already held in floating storage in Asia, but those inventories cannot be replenished while tankers carrying newly loaded crude remain inside the blockade. TankerTrackers.com co-founder Samir Madani said 29 tankers within the strait were carrying 36.11 million barrels of crude.
The blockade is positioned farther south between the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea rather than along Iran’s entire coastline. U.S. Navy vessels are vetting ships sailing to and from Iranian ports in the area.
Outside the blockade zone, Iran-linked tankers remain active. David Tannenbaum of Blackstone Compliance Services estimated that 51 vessels were operating in the Gulf of Oman, while another 81 were delivering cargoes in Asia or waiting off Malaysia. Those figures could not be independently verified by Reuters.
What it means for maritime operators
Traders said Iranian crude was still being offered for September and October delivery to China. However, available volumes were lower than for July and August as floating storage outside the Gulf continued to shrink without new supply.
Vortexa data showed Iranian crude held in floating storage west of the blockade rising to 41.7 million barrels by August 26, from 35.5 million barrels at the end of July. At the same time, total Iranian crude afloat declined to 107 million barrels from 135 million barrels.
The blockade is also affecting tanker positioning. Once cargoes stored near Asian markets are sold, empty vessels cannot return to Iranian ports. Jungman said 27 sanctioned tankers associated with Iran’s oil trade were waiting off Sri Lanka in ballast.
The sharp reduction in oil exports is increasing pressure on Iran’s foreign-currency earnings and reserves. Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi said the loss of revenue could force Tehran to finance spending by printing money, potentially adding to inflation. The International Monetary Fund estimates Iran’s inflation rate at nearly 70% this year.