US claims of sharply increased oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain difficult to reconcile with commercial vessel-tracking data, which continues to indicate reduced traffic through the strategic waterway.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the military helped move more than 15 million barrels of oil and petroleum products out of Hormuz on Tuesday. Including pipeline shipments, he placed the total volume leaving the region at close to 20 million barrels.

Wright also said the seven-day average through the strait had risen above 8 million barrels per day, attributing the movement of oil to US Navy support. However, the administration has not published vessel-level information supporting its estimates.

The statements follow reports that a US military-coordinated corridor on the southern Omani side of Hormuz has been facilitating tanker movements under military protection. US officials initially described nightly movements of 15 to 20 tankers, carrying an estimated 10 million barrels per day and potentially between 15 million and 20 million barrels on particularly active nights.

A subsequent report said around 40 tankers transited inbound and outbound through the southern deep channel on Friday night. Three US officials estimated that approximately 16 million barrels of oil moved out of Hormuz during that operation. Such activity would represent a substantial increase from the previously reported nightly tanker movements.

Commercial monitoring, however, presents a more restrained picture. The US-led Joint Maritime Information Center said on Thursday that commercial traffic through Hormuz remained at reduced levels. Independent tracking showed either single-digit tanker movements or no tanker crossings in either direction.

JMIC recorded 42 US-facilitated vessel transits over August 18 and 19, equivalent to about 21 per day, based on US Naval Cooperation and Guidance for Shipping data. The figures cover all vessels and do not specify how many were tankers, whether they were entering or leaving the Gulf, or the volumes carried.

Separately, JMIC recorded only three non-facilitated tanker crossings per day on August 17, 18 and 19. Kpler reported that confirmed Hormuz crossings declined by 19.5% during the previous week to 95, with none recorded through either the Omani route or the established Hormuz Traffic Separation Scheme.

TankerTrackers.com also questioned whether the figures attributed to US officials referred to volumes moved during each convoy operation rather than daily flows. It said longer-term daily averages provide a more meaningful measure, noting that convoy capacity is constrained and that laden outbound movements may alternate with ballast inbound transits.

JMIC continues to assess the threat level in the Strait of Hormuz as severe. It expects traffic to remain reduced through both the Iranian-controlled northern route and the southern Omani corridor amid attacks, US blockade enforcement and wider regional tensions.

Before the conflict, Hormuz averaged about 138 vessel transits per day. Military-assisted movements may not be fully visible in commercial data, but the oil volumes cited by Washington cannot currently be independently confirmed by the shipping industry.