A wide gap has emerged between US government estimates of Middle East oil exports and data compiled by vessel-tracking and commodity intelligence providers.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on August 12 that the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz had risen to almost 9 million barrels per day. He attributed the increase to coordinated efforts involving the US military and Gulf allies.

Wright also estimated that another 5 million to 7 million bpd was leaving the region through upgraded pipelines and export facilities, bringing total Middle East oil flows to approximately 15 million bpd. That level would represent about 75% of exports recorded before the conflict that began with US and Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28.

Available vessel-tracking figures point to lower volumes. Kpler data showed crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz at 2.77 million bpd in the week beginning July 27, declining to 1.74 million bpd in the following week. The highest weekly volume since the conflict began was 6.98 million bpd in the seven days from June 29.

When exports through alternative routes are included, Kpler recorded total Middle East crude shipments of 9.53 million bpd in the week beginning August 3. Its four-week average stood at 12.26 million bpd. These figures cover cargoes from facilities including Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port, Oman and Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, as well as shipments through Hormuz.

LSEG Oil Research data, limited to cargoes being loaded, already loaded, underway or discharged, placed Middle East crude exports at 9.33 million bpd during the first 12 days of August. That compared with 12.35 million bpd in July.

Both datasets indicate that exports remain below pre-conflict levels. Kpler estimated average shipments at 18.7 million bpd during the three months through the end of February.

Import figures also show only a partial recovery. Kpler recorded Middle East crude arrivals of 13.27 million bpd in July, including 10.86 million bpd discharged at Asian ports. While this was above April’s 9.26 million bpd, it remained below the 18.71 million bpd average in the three months before the conflict. July’s increase followed the exit of numerous tankers through Hormuz during a roughly three-week US-Iran ceasefire agreed in mid-June.

The difference between observed vessel movements and Wright’s estimate amounts to roughly 3 million to 5 million bpd. Possible explanations raised in the source include untracked shipments or errors in counting cargoes, potentially involving ship-to-ship transfers.

Further clarity could come from detailed vessel and cargo information supporting the US estimate. Import and discharge data over the following six weeks may also indicate whether flows have reached 15 million bpd, accounting for tanker voyage times to global destinations.