Maritime markets are increasingly factoring in a prolonged disruption to Middle East trade as geopolitical tensions, attacks on vessels and gaps in tracking data complicate operations through the Strait of Hormuz.

Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List, said geopolitics was reshaping maritime markets and that a lengthy period of disruption was beginning to be reflected in expectations. Prospects for a return to trading conditions seen before the conflict remain remote because any settlement would have to address the positions of Iran, the United States and Gulf states.

The war between the US and Iran has continued for 173 days, according to the source report. Control Risks analyst Dina Arakji said a conclusive agreement between the two countries was unlikely in the near term. Although military escalation appeared to have eased, she assessed that the risk remained credible and could produce periodic, temporary flare-ups.

Conditions in the Strait of Hormuz remain difficult to assess. Lloyd’s List Intelligence reported an even split between inbound and outbound vessels, with tankers accounting for most transits and some bulk carriers also moving through the waterway. Its latest weekly count identified 39 tanker movements, compared with 48 in the preceding week.

Those figures may be revised because many vessels are operating without transmitting normal tracking signals. Ships are also transiting at night, while available satellite imagery is generally captured in the morning, limiting visibility over actual traffic levels.

Lloyd’s List Intelligence said its data did not substantiate a US Central Command statement that the US military was moving 10 million barrels of oil per day through Hormuz. It also noted that information from the US Navy-run Joint Maritime Information Center did not reflect the stated volume.

Tanker owners and operators are adopting different responses. Saudi Aramco and Adnoc are using ship-to-ship transfers and redirecting exports through Egypt’s Sidi Kerir terminal on the Mediterranean. By contrast, Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation and China Merchants Energy Shipping have largely stopped sending tankers through both Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb.

That position could change. Cichen Shen, maritime intelligence director for Asia-Pacific at Lloyd’s List, said China was reportedly reviewing plans that could allow Persian Gulf trade to resume. A recovery in Chinese crude imports from the region could bring more Chinese tankers back to Middle East loading areas.

Any return would remain exposed to geopolitical and operational constraints. Shen said Chinese vessels could use an Iran-approved corridor through Hormuz, potentially requiring negotiations with the US over their subsequent exit. Previous briefings indicated that ships using the Iranian-controlled route were likely paying Iran for approved passage.

Insurance and asset risks are also influencing deployment decisions. According to the report, insurers could regard such payments as grounds for invalidating cover if a vessel were damaged. Chinese lessors have become more cautious following the attack on the lessor-financed GasLog Shanghai in the Middle East, prompting closer scrutiny of vessel safety, insurance coverage, contracts and the allocation of potential losses.