The prolonged disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has led owners and charterers to reassess Middle East shipping risk on a lasting basis, according to Gus Majed, founder and group CEO of fuel and freight price risk specialist Paratus.

Speaking ahead of the Splash Singapore conference, Majed said the crisis would remain the central issue in tanker market discussions. By September, shipping will have faced seven months of disruption around Hormuz, while the IMO’s rescheduled carbon vote will also be approaching.

Majed expects the tanker debate to address concentration risk, vessel values, changing ownership structures and the exposure of other major trade chokepoints. He argued that any diplomatic resolution would not immediately restore the market to its pre-crisis position because shipping companies have now experienced the possibility of the strait remaining closed for months.

That experience is likely to remain reflected in war-risk premiums, employment conditions for crews, charter-party clauses and spending on alternative export infrastructure through ports including Fujairah and Sohar, he said.

The tanker sector is also being reshaped by the growing role of oil producers as vessel owners. Majed pointed to ADNOC’s purchases of VLCCs and said Bahri’s fleet had expanded beyond 100 vessels, creating a market in which customers are increasingly becoming competitors. At the same time, modern VLCC values have risen above $130m, returning to levels last recorded around 2008 amid an ageing fleet and limited growth in compliant tonnage.

Risks are not confined to Hormuz. Majed noted that El Niño is again pressuring Panama Canal water levels, while shallow conditions on the Rhine are disrupting inland shipping in Europe. Together, these developments underline shipping’s simultaneous exposure to geopolitical conflict and climate-related constraints.

Singapore’s role as a maritime and bunkering centre is also evolving. More than half of the city-state’s bunker feedstock previously came through Hormuz, but supply chains were reorganised within weeks of the disruption. Bunker sales nevertheless reached 28.2m tonnes in the first half, nearly 5% higher year on year.

Majed said Singapore’s competitive strength is shifting from scale and volume towards adaptability and trust. He also identified fuel measurement and certification as an emerging competitive area as shipping enters a more compliance-focused bunkering environment.

The conflict has additionally increased the commercial importance of maritime intelligence technology. AIS shutdowns, dark ship-to-ship transfers and differences between official flow estimates and vessel-tracking data have moved satellite intelligence and artificial intelligence-based vessel analytics closer to becoming essential infrastructure for market participants.

Majed is scheduled to chair the tanker session at Splash Singapore alongside Christoph Toepfer, Andreas Michalopoulos and Nitin Mathur.