Iran has recorded about seven weeks without meaningful crude exports passing through the Strait of Hormuz, with a US naval blockade disrupting flows to China and increasing pressure on Tehran’s foreign-currency earnings.
No Iranian crude cargo has successfully transited the strait to China since July 14, according to estimates from Kpler, Vortexa and TankerTrackers.com. China is described as Iran’s only remaining major oil customer.
Context: Strait of Hormuz Intelligence File · Strait of Hormuz shipping guide · Strait of Hormuz
The disruption marks a significant departure from earlier sanctions campaigns. Vortexa analyst Claire Jungman said Iranian crude continued to clear Hormuz every month even during the maximum-pressure sanctions of 2019 and 2020, unlike the sustained decline to near-zero outbound flows since mid-July.
Related context: earlier Strait of Hormuz coverage · earlier Strait of Hormuz coverage · earlier Strait of Hormuz coverage · earlier Strait of Hormuz coverage
Operational context
Vortexa and Kpler estimated that Iran loaded between 220,000 and 255,000 barrels per day of crude and condensate in August. That compared with about 740,000 bpd in July and approximately 2 million bpd in March.
Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi said the loss of oil-export income could push Tehran towards financing expenditure by printing money, potentially adding to inflation. The International Monetary Fund estimates Iran’s inflation rate at nearly 70% this year.
The blockade is positioned farther south between the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea rather than along Iran’s entire coastline. US Navy vessels vet ships sailing to and from Iranian ports in the area.
TankerTrackers.com co-founder Samir Madani said 29 tankers inside the strait were carrying 36.11 million barrels of crude. Outside the blockade zone, Iran-linked shadow-fleet vessels remain active. David Tannenbaum of Blackstone Compliance Services estimated that 51 such vessels were operating in the Gulf of Oman, while another 81 were delivering cargoes in Asia or waiting off Malaysia. Those figures were not independently verified.
What it means for maritime operators
Iranian crude remains available for September and October delivery to China, according to traders, but offered volumes are lower because floating storage outside the Gulf is declining without replacement cargoes.
Vortexa data showed Iranian crude held in floating storage west of the blockade line increasing to 41.7 million barrels by August 26, from 35.5 million barrels at the end of July. However, total Iranian crude afloat fell from 135 million barrels to 107 million barrels over the same period.
Once cargoes outside the blockade area are sold, empty tankers cannot return to Iranian ports, leaving vessels idle offshore. Jungman said 27 sanctioned tankers connected with Iran’s oil trade were waiting in ballast off Sri Lanka and were unable to return to Iran.
Washington also sought to intensify pressure by threatening countries that continue trading with Tehran, although it stopped short of immediately imposing penalties.