Danish shipping group Maersk has increased its full-year earnings guidance for the second time in 2026, supported by stronger-than-expected container demand, rising freight rates and widespread port congestion.

The company reported second-quarter earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation of $3.0 billion, up from $2.30 billion a year earlier. The result was also substantially above the median estimate of $2.12 billion in a company-provided analyst poll.

Maersk now expects underlying EBITDA of between $10.5 billion and $12.5 billion for the full year, compared with its previous forecast of $8 billion to $10 billion. Its underlying operating profit guidance was raised to a range of $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion from an earlier estimate of $2 billion to $4 billion.

Global container trade demand exceeded the group’s expectations during the second quarter. Growth in other markets more than compensated for a 40% contraction in Middle East imports, with Chinese exports identified as the main driver.

Maersk said the strength in Chinese exports could continue into the third quarter of 2026, although it warned that the unresolved conflict in the Middle East remained a source of uncertainty.

Chief executive Vincent Clerc said congestion and network bottlenecks, rather than the Middle East conflict itself, were the principal factors pushing freight rates higher. Waiting times for vessels to berth at Shanghai have reached 12 days, while strong cargo demand has placed pressure on landside infrastructure in Northern Europe, South America, West Africa and China.

The resulting capacity constraints have benefited container carriers through higher freight rates, despite additional operating expenses linked to disruption in the Middle East.

Operating costs in Maersk’s Ocean division increased by 19%, while the average bunker price rose 44% year on year. The group said optimised fuel consumption and commercial measures helped offset these effects.

Most shipping companies abandoned the Asia-Europe route through the Suez Canal following Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Maersk and German rival Hapag-Lloyd have since announced gradual returns to the route.

Clerc said Maersk is currently moving about one-third of its normal traffic through the canal or the Red Sea, covering four of its 13 services. He added that conditions were in place for a full return to Suez during 2026, but the company was proceeding cautiously to avoid adding further pressure at congested terminals.

Hapag-Lloyd has also raised its outlook recently, despite indicating that the Middle East crisis would have a $600 million impact on its business.