Maersk appears set to move beyond the containership capacity ceiling that shaped its fleet strategy for much of the decade, as the Danish carrier considers how to support renewed growth.

During the highly profitable container shipping market of the 2020s, Maersk repeatedly said it intended to keep its fleet broadly within a range of 4m to 4.4m teu. Newbuildings were primarily expected to replace older vessels rather than increase overall capacity.

The carrier’s operated fleet has now exceeded 4.7m teu. The expansion comes as CMA CGM approaches Maersk’s position in the global liner rankings and holds a substantially larger orderbook.

In comments accompanying its second-quarter results, Maersk told investors that it would ensure it has the capacity to grow, indicating that further gains from the existing fleet are limited.

Linerlytica said the shift could lead to a new phase of vessel ordering. According to the consultancy, Maersk’s annualised fleet growth since 2018 has averaged 2%, compared with 11.7% among major competitors. It argued that years of restraint have left the carrier needing more tonnage as the global containership orderbook reaches record levels.

However, analysts do not uniformly expect a large newbuilding programme. Drewry managing director Philip Damas said Maersk is likely to focus on replacing ageing vessels, partly in response to tighter environmental requirements, while also adding ships suitable for expanding intra-regional services.

Drewry’s figures show that Maersk has 46 vessels of at least 15,000 teu on order, but only seven ships of 6,000 teu or less. Damas also noted that the carrier’s previous caution could reduce its exposure to potential overcapacity between late 2027 and 2029. With newbuilding prices now higher, he suggested Maersk could use a future downturn to acquire large vessels from owners facing surplus capacity.

Andy Lane of CTI Consultancy said Maersk’s existing orderbook is equivalent to 25% of its current capacity, although scrapping will offset part of that growth. He warned that another 25% of the existing global fleet is scheduled to enter service in 2027 and 2028, against estimated annual organic demand growth of 5%.

Vespucci Maritime analyst Lars Jensen said abandoning the fleet ceiling does not necessarily imply extensive ordering. Maersk could instead take a more aggressive approach to chartering vessels.

Alphaliner analyst Jan Tiedemann said the carrier has already become highly active in the charter market. In his assessment, Maersk ordered too few large newbuildings and acted too late, leaving it in need of one or two dozen additional vessels.

Tiedemann also highlighted longer-term renewal requirements because Maersk was an early adopter of ultra-large containerships. Some of those vessels could be among the first of their generation requiring replacement in the early 2030s. He said a possible order for large LNG dual-fuel ships could emerge later this year, potentially covering deliveries from 2029 to 2031.

Maersk had not responded to questions from the original publisher at the time of publication.