Iran’s offshore crude stockpile in Southeast Asia is being drawn down rapidly, with no fresh Iranian crude reported to have crossed the U.S. blockade line since July 14, according to vessel-tracking analysis by United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI).
UANI estimated that about 9 million barrels of Iranian crude were transferred through ship-to-ship operations in waters off Malaysia during September. The transfers reduced inventories built up before the blockade took effect, leaving no more than roughly 10 million barrels in floating storage around Malaysia’s Eastern Outside Port Limits (EOPL), the group said.
The remaining offshore volumes have become an increasingly important supply source for Iranian crude buyers, as cargoes already positioned outside the Persian Gulf can still be moved between tankers and delivered. However, UANI said the lack of new crude leaving Iran means these stocks cannot be replenished.
Operational context
The group reported that Iranian exports remained close to a standstill in September. It tracked three Handymax vessels crossing the blockade line during the month, carrying a combined estimated 1.52 million barrels of LPG and methanol. This represented average exports of 50,789 barrels per day under UANI’s methodology.
UANI measures exports when vessels cross the declared blockade line rather than at the point of loading. On that basis, it calculated Iranian exports at 966,133 barrels per day in July, falling to 49,677 barrels per day in August and 50,789 barrels per day in September. It said China, historically Iran’s largest crude customer, received no newly exported Iranian crude during September.
Satellite monitoring cited by UANI showed no crude loadings at Iranian export terminals during the month. The limited activity observed involved LPG, naphtha and fuel oil, it said.
In Malaysian waters, UANI recorded eight ship-to-ship transfers during September, including six involving Iranian crude and two involving LPG. The crude transfers accounted for an estimated 9 million barrels and were ultimately intended for Chinese independent refiners, often referred to as teapots.
What it means for maritime operators
The activity continued amid increased scrutiny of sanctioned and Iran-linked tankers operating near the EOPL. UANI said Malaysian authorities carried out targeted enforcement actions before a field investigation by the group, after which at least 25 vessels described as ghost fleet tankers departed the area. Around 20 reportedly remained.
Some operations appear to have shifted north in the South China Sea. UANI said the Iran-flagged tanker Hilda I conducted a crude transfer south of Zhuhai on September 17, while Happiness I conducted another south of Hong Kong on September 22.
Elsewhere, UANI said 20 empty Iran-flagged tankers were loitering off Sri Lanka at the end of September, while Diona remained in deep water off Duqm, Oman. The group said the vessels were unable to return to Iranian ports because of the blockade.
The decline in Iran’s offshore inventory contrasts with a broader recovery in crude exports from other Persian Gulf producers. Citing Kpler and Vortexa data, UANI said exports from major Middle Eastern producers averaged 18.3 million barrels per day in the final seven days of September, led largely by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.