Danish shipping group Maersk has raised its full-year earnings guidance for the second time in 2026 after strong container demand and higher freight rates boosted its second-quarter results.

The company reported second-quarter earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation of $3.0 billion, compared with $2.30 billion a year earlier. The result was also substantially above the median forecast of $2.12 billion in a company-provided poll.

Maersk now expects underlying EBITDA of between $10.5 billion and $12.5 billion for the full year, up from its previous range of $8 billion to $10 billion. Its forecast for underlying operating profit was increased to between $4.5 billion and $6.5 billion from an earlier range of $2 billion to $4 billion.

Global container trade demand exceeded Maersk’s expectations during the second quarter. Growth in other markets more than offset a 40% contraction in Middle East imports, with Chinese exports identified as the main driver of demand.

Maersk said the strength of Chinese exports could continue into the third quarter, although the unresolved conflict in the Middle East remained a source of uncertainty.

Chief executive Vincent Clerc attributed the rise in freight rates primarily to port congestion and network bottlenecks rather than the Middle East conflict. He said waiting times for berths had reached 12 days at Shanghai, while strong demand was placing pressure on landside infrastructure in Northern Europe, South America, West Africa and China.

The resulting congestion has tightened effective shipping capacity and supported freight rates. This market dynamic resembles the pandemic period, when severe supply-chain disruption and constrained capacity contributed to higher industry earnings.

Middle East disruption nevertheless increased costs for Maersk’s Ocean division. Operating costs rose 19%, while the average bunker price was 44% higher than a year earlier. Maersk said it mitigated these pressures through optimised fuel consumption and commercial measures.

Most shipping companies had diverted Asia-Europe services away from the Suez Canal following Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Maersk and German rival Hapag-Lloyd have more recently announced gradual returns to the route.

According to Clerc, Maersk is currently routing around one-third of its normal traffic through the Suez Canal or Red Sea, covering four of its 13 services. He said the conditions required for a full return to Suez during 2026 were in place, but the company was proceeding gradually to avoid creating further disruption at terminals already affected by congestion.

Hapag-Lloyd has also recently upgraded its outlook despite warning of a $600 million impact from the Middle East crisis.