CMA CGM has postponed a planned low-water surcharge for cargo routed from the west coast of South America through the Panama Canal, as tighter draught restrictions and reduced daily transits raise concerns over container shipping capacity.

The French carrier initially said the $150 per TEU surcharge would take effect on September 1 but has moved the implementation date to October 1. Industry consultant Lars Jensen suggested that the rapid revision may reflect an initial miscommunication over the starting date.

The surcharge will cover cargo moving from South America’s west coast to a broad range of destinations. These include North Europe, the Mediterranean, North Africa, the Indian Subcontinent, the Middle East Gulf, the Red Sea, South Africa and West Africa. It will also apply to shipments bound for the east coast of Central America, the Caribbean, the Leeward and Windward islands, Mexico’s east coast, the US east and Gulf coasts, and Canada’s east coast.

The change comes ahead of expected restrictions affecting both the allowable draught of Neopanamax vessels and the number of ships permitted to transit the canal each day.

From September 2, the maximum authorised draught for Neopanamax vessels is due to fall to 14.63 metres. A further reduction to 14.48 metres is scheduled for October 1. Daily canal transits are also expected to decline from 36 to 34 on September 3 and then to 32 from September 15, although the transit limits remain subject to change.

Braemar data for July showed 189 Neopanamax transits. Of those, 85 transits, involving 78 individual vessels, were completed by ships drawing at least 15 metres. On this basis, approximately 45% of Neopanamax transits could be affected by the lower draught limits. Those voyages represented around 55% of the nominal TEU capacity passing through the Neopanamax locks.

Braemar analyst Jonathan Roach said the likely initial response would be to reduce cargo intake rather than remove vessels from existing services. Ships could continue operating their scheduled rotations but may have to sail below normal capacity to comply with the revised draught requirements.

A reduction in daily transit availability could create an additional constraint by preventing some vessels from using the canal. Longer queues and delays would further reduce effective capacity by keeping ships occupied for extended periods.

Should conditions worsen, carriers may consider routing Asia-US east coast services around the Cape of Good Hope. Braemar estimates that such diversions would add roughly 30% to transit times and tie up vessels for longer, placing further pressure on fleet availability.

The impact could therefore extend beyond the canal itself. Cargo that cannot move through Panama at normal volumes would need to be accommodated elsewhere in the global container fleet, potentially broadening the capacity squeeze across other routes.