Oil markets have increasingly adapted to constrained and less transparent shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz following the expiry of the 60-day US-Iran Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, according to Kpler.

The MoU window ended on 17 August without a peace agreement, an extension or active negotiations. While the arrangement allowed a substantial backlog of stranded crude tankers to leave the Gulf, Kpler said it did not restore normal traffic through the strategic waterway.

Around 374 million barrels of crude, or approximately 6.1 million barrels per day, moved out of the Gulf during the 60-day period. That was almost three times the roughly 2.3 million barrels per day recorded during the blockade-affected months before the agreement, but remained about 40% of the approximately 15 million barrels per day that Hormuz averaged in 2025.

The initial improvement was reflected in floating storage, which declined from about 61 million barrels when the MoU was signed to 16 million barrels within three weeks. Total crude on water in the Middle East Gulf and Gulf of Oman dropped from 165 million barrels at signing to 107 million barrels by 7 July. However, it subsequently climbed to around 130 million barrels by 16 August, exceeding the roughly 96 million barrels recorded at the start of the war.

Shipping visibility also deteriorated as the agreement progressed. During the third week, only about 5% of Gulf of Oman exports lacked a confirmed upstream cargo, as vessels loaded and transited with visible Automatic Identification System signals. By the week of the MoU’s expiry, that proportion had risen to 66% of a smaller overall export volume.

The southern Omani corridor, opened under Joint Maritime Information Center guidance on 20 June, recorded 48 crossings in its second week but had effectively disappeared by the fourth week following attacks on vessels using the route. The IMO route also fell to zero, while dark or unknown traffic accounted for more than 80% by the end of the period, according to Kpler.

Disruption extended beyond crude shipping. LPG crossings stopped in mid-July, while LNG carrier transits were suspended for almost three weeks before resuming in late July, largely without AIS visibility.

Kpler said the agreement did not resolve the security, insurance, mine and interdiction risks affecting Hormuz traffic. The US oil waiver remained in place for 20 of the 60 days, the blockade suspension lasted 27 days, and Iran’s mine-clearance commitment was not completed.

At expiry, final-week loadings were close to 4.9 million barrels per day, compared with confirmed clearance of 2.3 million barrels per day. Ballast entries into the Gulf had also fallen to about two vessels per day. Kpler estimated the shortfall against normal Hormuz crude flows at roughly 550 million barrels, with the impact expected to carry into the fourth quarter as inventory draws and buffers accumulated during the truce window diminish.